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Election 2018; gerrymandering;
Jump to: 2017; 2018; 2019;
-- 2016 --
November 10: Over 60 million people cast
their ballots for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, while 59.8 million voted
for Trump. But how did these votes split on demographic and party lines?
http://www.businessinsider.com/exit-polls-who-voted-for-trump-clinton-2016-11
-- 2017 --
May edition: The demographic changes that
have taken hold across the U.S. will
continue their transformation of America ... The nation as a whole will turn
grayer and its racial and ethnic diversification is expected to continue: In
less than 40 years, the U.S. will not have a single racial or ethnic majority
group ...
http://www.pewresearch.org/2017/01/10/how-america-changed-during-barack-obamas-presidency/
June 28: Trump Fails To Reach Beyond Base As
Independents' Disapproval Grows
https://www.npr.org/2017/06/28/534602973/trump-fails-to-reach-beyond-base-as-independents-disapproval-grows
-- 2018 --
January 22: The GOP will survive Trump. But
in what kind of shape?
http://theweek.com/articles/749435/gop-survive-trump-but-what-kind-shape
March 11: Trump Is Remaking The Courts In
His Image: White, Male and Straight
He’s nominated 87 people to be lifetime federal judges. They’re about as diverse
as a casting call for “Mad Men.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-judicial-nominees-white-male-straight_us_5aa2b9bee4b07047bec6107c
April 19: America's Electoral Future ...
Demographic Shifts and the Future of the Trump Coalition
Many analysts suggest that if current voting patterns remain the same as in
recent elections, the projected rise of communities of color—Hispanics, blacks,
Asians, and others—will favor Democrats as the Republican-leaning white share of
the electorate shrinks. However, the aging of the population and the continued
substan-tial political clout of whites without college educations played a key
role in electing Republican Donald Trump. Because the demography of these latter
groups differs across states in ways that tend to benefit Republicans, this
report finds that quite a few future scenarios could mimic the result of the
2016 election—a Democratic win in the popular vote with a Republican win in the
Electoral College.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/americas-electoral-future_2018/
April 20: Republicans And Democrats
Should Be Worried About 2020
A new projection of the voting population shows demographic problems for
Republicans and Electoral College problems for Democrats.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-_and_-democrats-should-be-worried-about-2020/
April 24: Research Finds That Racism,
Sexism, and Status Fears Drove Trump Voters
Two new studies suggest Trump broadened the Republican Party's appeal by tapping
into deep-seated anxieties and prejudices.
https://psmag.com/news/research-finds-that-racism-sexism-and-status-fears-drove-trump-voters
April 26:
Trump voters were
motivated by fear of losing their status
A new study says poverty had little to do with it
https://www.economist.com/democracy-in-america/2018/04/26/trump-voters-were-motivated-by-fear-of-losing-their-status
May 1:
Will Demographics Fail Democrats Again?
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/campaigns-elections/2018-millennial-fail-democrats/
June 11:
Did Trump spur Latinos
to California’s primary polls?
Democrats are hoping anger with the Trump
administration will drive Latino voters to the polls across the country for this
November’s midterm elections and blunt the Republican president’s agenda. So how
did that work out in California’s primary election, in a state where Latinos are
the largest demographic group?
While Tuesday’s results were disappointing for some of the state’s most
prominent Latino politicians, five Latino candidates for statewide office all
advanced to the runoff in November — a first.
“That’s historic,” said Fernando J. Guerra, political science professor at
Loyola Marymount University. “There’s never been five viable Latino candidates
on the November ballot statewide, ever.”
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/06/11/did-trump-spur-latinos-to-californias-primary-polls/
June 28: Trump Is Up Against a Demographic
Time Bomb
The President is alienating future voters who will hold power in the next
election
Demographic trends show he is ruling for a base that will soon be an electoral
minority, while alienating a demographic that will soon hold the balance of
power. Trump and his acolytes are facing a demographic time bomb, and the more
he does to alienate everyone except his base, the worse it will get for
everyone. The United States is governed today by a generation of politicians who
are at the end of their careers and reflect a political era that is drawing to a
close. In them, we are seeing the last gasps of 1950s America, as the baby
boomers come to the end of an era in which they were the political majority and
in control of industry.
https://medium.com/s/story/demographics-show-that-trump-can-only-lose-c55d9f79449
-- 2019 --
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