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Also see: Free trade; tariffs; taxes; border
adjustment tax; TPP;
Most economic analyses indicate that NAFTA has been beneficial to the North
American economies and the average citizen,[7][8][9]
but harmed a small minority of workers in industries exposed to trade
competition.[10][11]
Economists hold that withdrawing from NAFTA or renegotiating NAFTA in a way that
reestablishes
trade barriers will adversely affect the U.S. economy and cost jobs.[12][13][14]
However, Mexico would be much more severely affected by job loss and reduction
of economic growth in both the short term and long term
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Free_Trade_Agreement
July 25: [Trump] is unequivocal
on his position: He would renegotiate NAFTA and impose a 35% tariff, a tax
on imports, from Mexico. Or, he'd rip up the trade agreement entirely.
February 1:
Speaking to the House and Senate Republicans at their annual legislative retreat
at the luxury Greenbrier Resort, Trump claimed his first year in office was “one
of the greatest years in the history of politics, in the history of our country,
for a party, what we’ve done and what we’ve accomplished. I don’t think it’s
been done.”
February 19: U.S. President Donald Trump’s
administration is mulling changes to how it calculates U.S. trade deficits in a
way that would likely help bolster political arguments to renegotiate key trade
deals, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing people involved in the
discussions.
The main idea being discussed is whether to exclude “re-exports” from the
calculation of U.S. exports, sources told the newspaper. Re-exports refer to
goods that are imported into the United States, then transferred to another
country.
... By using a metric that widens the trade deficit, it could give him [Trump]
political leverage to make sweeping changes ...
If the government adopted the new method, the deficit with Mexico [for example]
would be nearly twice as high.
... career government employees at the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office
objected to a request to prepare data using the new methodology.
Although they complied with the request, the newspaper reported, the staffers
explained why they disagreed with the approach.
In a statement to the newspaper, the office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s
deputy chief of staff, Payne Griffin, said officials there are not close to a
decision yet on whether to adopt a new approach.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade-idUSKBN15Y0V1
April 27:Canada Is
Too Nice to Stand Up to Trump ... Justin Trudeau
tried to befriend Trump, but bullies only respect people who fight back. That's
why Trump is beating Trudeau to a pulp over trade.
https://newrepublic.com/article/142292/canada-nice-stand-trump
July 7: Fast Facts About the World's Largest
Trade Agreement [NAFTA]
It took three U.S. presidents more
than a decade to get NAFTA off the ground ... Reagan, H.W. Bush, Clinton ...
American workers who lost their jobs to NAFTA are against it. On the other hand,
the jobs outsourced to Mexico lowered prices for gas and food. This is something
everyone benefits from, but most don’t realize it's because of NAFTA.
October 10: The more than 310 undersigned
state and local chambers of commerce from across the United States support your
efforts to modernize the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Business
leaders across the country know first-hand that trade with Canada and Mexico has
created American jobs, boosted economic growth, and strengthened local
economies, but we know we can do even more to seize the benefits of trade with
our North American neighbors ... [we are] urging the United States to remain in
Nafta.
https://www.uschamber.com/letter/coalition-chamber-federation-letter-nafta-the-president-and-congress
October 11: The collapse of the 1994 trade
deal would reverberate throughout the global economy, inflicting damage far
beyond Mexico, Canada and the United States and affecting industries as varied
as manufacturing, agriculture and energy. It would also sow at least short-term
chaos for businesses like the auto industry that have arranged their North
American
supply chains around the deal’s terms.
The ripple effects could also impede other aspects of the president’s agenda,
for example, by solidifying political opposition among farm state Republicans
who support the pact and jeopardizing legislative priorities like tax reform.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/11/business/economy/nafta-trump.html
February 19:
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is mulling changes to how it
calculates U.S. trade deficits in a way that would likely help bolster political
arguments to renegotiate key trade deals, the Wall Street Journal reported on
Sunday, citing people involved in the discussions.
The main idea being discussed is whether to exclude “re-exports” from the
calculation of U.S. exports, sources told the newspaper. Re-exports refer to
goods that are imported into the United States, then transferred to another
country.
... By using a metric that widens the trade deficit, it could give him [Trump]
political leverage to make sweeping changes ...
If the government adopted the new method, the deficit with Mexico [for example]
would be nearly twice as high.
... career government employees at the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office
objected to a request to prepare data using the new methodology.
Although they complied with the request, the newspaper reported, the staffers
explained why they disagreed with the approach.
In a statement to the newspaper, the office of the U.S. Trade Representative’s
deputy chief of staff, Payne Griffin, said officials there are not close to a
decision yet on whether to adopt a new approach.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trade-idUSKBN15Y0V1
February 22: Trump’s war on NAFTA is already
taking a heavy toll on U.S. farmers ... As Mexico begins to look for imports
elsewhere, working families suffer.
President Trump’s relentless crusade against the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) is already creating trouble for a community the White House
has long purported to champion: U.S. farmers.
https://thinkprogress.org/nafta-fallout-trump-caab3aeab96b/
February 22: Trump Gets Mad; Farmers Get
Hurt ... China buys 70% to 80% of all sorghum produced in the United States
every year and about one-third of the soybeans. The United States is the world’s
largest producer of soybeans, and China is the world’s largest buyer of them.
Add to that the sobering fact that our capable competitors in Brazil and
Argentina are all too happy to pick up whatever slack we leave in supplying the
Chinese market, and these potential tariffs have the potential to make life very
hard for soybean farmers.”
Even Trump’s agriculture secretary, Sonny Perdue, counseled caution about
tangling with China over steel and aluminum imports ... “Agriculture is usually
the tip of the spear of retaliatory measures.”
It’s not just China. Trump’s repeated threats to withdraw from NAFTA have
led Mexican corn buyers to turn increasingly toward South American sellers.
Reuters reported on Thursday that Mexico bought 583,000 metric tons of corn
from Brazil last year – a 970% increase over 2016.
February 22: As Trump trashes NAFTA, Mexico
turns to Brazilian corn ... Mexican buyers imported ten times more corn from
Brazil last year amid concern that NAFTA renegotiations could disrupt their U.S.
supplies, according to government data and top grains merchants.
U.S. farmers, food processors and grain traders have spent months trying to
prevent trade relationships from falling apart if the North American Free Trade
Agreement implodes. They are trying to protect more than $19 billion in sales to
Mexican buyers of everything from corn and soybeans to dairy and poultry.
March 2: Trump sours flagging NAFTA talks
with steel trade war threats
Trump said on Thursday that a plan for protectionist tariffs of 25 percent on
steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum goods would be announced next week ...
“The Canadian team is absolutely furious,” Dias told Reuters, saying Canada
should walk away from the talks if it did not receive an exemption. He likened
the Trump administration to a schoolyard bully.
There is no formal free trade deal between the US and Mexico, only an agreement
between the two countries on how to resolve key issues in their trade
relationship as part of the NAFTA talks. The US trade representative's office
officially described the agreement as "a preliminary agreement in principle ...
to update the 24-year-old NAFTA with modern provisions representing a 21st
century."
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/27/politics/trump-nafta-deal/index.html
Undated:
Many economists consider that NAFTA was beneficial for the United States.[59][60]
In a 2012 survey of leading economists, 95% said that on average U.S. citizens
benefited from NAFTA.[8]
A 2001 Journal of Economic Perspectives review found that NAFTA was a net
benefit to the United States
The
US Chamber of Commerce credits NAFTA with increasing U.S. trade in goods and
services with Canada and Mexico from $337 billion in 1993 to $1.2 trillion in
2011, while the
AFL–CIO
blames the agreement for sending 700,000 American manufacturing jobs to Mexico
over that time.[63]
December 2:
President Trump announced his intention late Saturday to quickly withdraw the
United States from the North American Free Trade Agreement, a move intended to
force House Democrats to enact a revised version of the pact despite concerns
that it fails to protect American workers.
If the president follows through on his threat, congressional leaders will have
six months to pass the measure. The agreement has been losing support in recent
days as Democratic lawmakers, ready to take control of the House in January,
reckon with fallout from the announcement last week that General Motors was
planning to idle five plants in North America.
If no deal can be reached, both versions of the treaty would be void, which
would result in far more restrictive trade that could have a severe impact on
industry and agriculture in all three nations, economists have warned.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/02/us/politics/trump-withdraw-nafta.html
December 4: Trump is about to play a
dangerous game of chicken with Democrats to try to ram through his trade deal
with Mexico and Canada
Trump on Saturday threatened to begin the formal process to pull the US out of
the existing
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a move that would be designed
to give Congress little option but to approve the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Trump formally signed the USMCA
alongside Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and outgoing Mexican President
Enrique Pena Nieto at the G20 summit on Friday. In the wake of ceremonial
signing, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle expressed some misgivings about the USMCA.
December 17:
‘Possible quagmire’ awaits new trade deal in Congress; Big Business is nearing
panic
“Those concerns are real,” said John Murphy, senior vice president for
international policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “It arises from the
reality that Canadian and Mexican markets are incredibly important to U.S.
business and agriculture. They’re not just our two largest export markets. They
buy more U.S. made manufactured goods than the next 10 countries on the list.
It’s supremely important.”
“I don’t think people fully realize how precarious all this really is,” said one
official at a major business group, who was not authorized to speak publicly
about concerns. “It’s going to shake confidence in the U.S. economy like it
never has been shaken before.”
https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/policy/trade/article223115200.html
